Improved fuel mileage – Light vehicle fuel economy is the largest single component of the UCS plan, accounting for a four million barrel per day reduction by 2035, one third of the total. Fuel efficiency of commercial vehicles and airplanes adds another 1.5 million. This reduction depends in part on increasing U.S. Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards, currently scheduled to approximately double fuel economy by 2025. A recent announcement by President Trump suggests these standards may be lowered.
Reducing miles traveled – This category includes a variety of measures requiring behavioral changes. They fall into three categories:
- Substituting other means of transportation, such as walking, bicycling and mass transit
- Increasing vehicle occupancy by carpooling, vanpooling and ride sharing
- Reducing trip frequency or length by denser housing, trip chaining, decreasing discretionary driving, four day work schedules and similar methods
Changes such as carpooling require only a behavioral change. Mass transit and development patterns that reduce commute distance may require substantial investment and time to implement.
The UCS plan estimates a 1.5 million barrel per day reduction from these methods. The category includes “smart roads,” a catch-all term encompassing a number of technologies to increase travel efficiency.
Electric vehicles – In most analyses, oil savings by electric vehicles is a significant but relatively small component of oil demand reduction, primarily due to slow adoption. The UCS estimate is 1.5 million barrels per day, about 12% of the total. This is a substantially lower share than in the Bloomberg estimate, however, Bloomberg includes ride sharing.
Fuel switching – Biofuels, primarily ethanol in the U.S. and biodiesel in Europe, currently represent less than 5% of world transportation fuel. The environmental benefit of first generation biofuels is controversial, and biofuel crops compete with food crops, raising food prices. The UCS estimate of 1.5 million barrels per day is based on second generation biofuels, which do not compete with fuel crops. They have not proved commercial to date.
Smarter transportation – The UCS attributes 1.5 million barrels per day to smart transportation, which they do not describe in detail. Postulated reductions in this category commonly result from ride sharing services, such as Uber, and car sharing services, such as Zipcar. These services only reduce miles traveled if the users drive less than they would in an owned vehicle. The underlying assumption seems to be that the need for driving will be reduced by mass transit, mixed use development or other measures, requiring only infrequent driving. It is these changes rather than the sharing services that cause the reduction.
Self-driving vehicles are predicted by some to reduce oil consumption. The timing and effect of autonomous vehicles has its own wide range of predictions. There’s not agreement whether they would increase or decrease consumption.
Efficiency in non-transportation uses – Energy use in buildings is very important in carbon reduction, however, only about 5% of building energy worldwide is provided by oil. The UCS estimates improvements in building heating and industrial fuel use can save two million barrels per day.
UH ENERGY FELLOWS BLOG 